This supporting desk studies the unhedged Agreements in USD: a single-path preview, purchase-price solver, heatmaps and ledger inspection. Its distribution runs are separate from your completed strategy comparison. Return to Compare strategies for the whole strategy in your chosen unit.
FORWARDFLOW / RESEARCH WORKSPACE
What would you like to test?
Explore a theory. Understand the cash flows. See what changes the outcome for the Holder.
The single-path preview updates after you edit an assumption. Distribution and stress analyses run when requested. Templates retain your paper terms and seed; review the assumptions before interpreting a result.
Price path
Paper terms
Defaults & behavior
timing shape
Stop sale
Pacing
The Holder’s outcome
Preparing the first run
Holder return
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Effective annual IRR · net of fees
Net cash gain
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Across the full modelled book life
Cash multiple
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Invested —
Capital recovered
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Weighted average life — months
One simulated path, one conditional outcome. These figures depend on the selected assumptions. Use Distributions to examine a range of outcomes and Stress tests to challenge the scenario.
Bitcoin price through the life of the book
cohortstrikes · exit events on the drawn path
Where every Buyer dollar goes
Σ schedule value, split
Exit split
Outcome distribution
GBM · resampled by seed
Where it breaks
every cell a full run · bold line = break-even
Which assumptions change the return?
each catastrophe vs your current base, live
Purchase price for your target return
your hurdle, your assumptions
Per-Agreement drill-down
click any column to sort — every cent traceable
The audit — every formula re-derived
Rust engine vs an independent in-browser re-derivation