Understand the model. Know what moves it.

A guide to the Agreements, assumptions and calculations behind ForwardFlow. For investment, research and risk teams evaluating the Holder’s side of the program.

Start with the Agreement Open the research workspace

01 / UNDERSTANDFollow the money.

Who pays, who receives, and what happens at completion, early completion or a stop.

The Agreement explained → 02 / REVIEWInspect the evidence.

Trace results to assumptions, formulas and tests. Learn what the checks establish.

Verification & reproduction → 03 / CONNECTAsk in your own words.

Connect a supported assistant to the engine and turn a question into an explicit scenario.

AI access & MCP →

One Agreement · base terms · before any stop or early completion

Coin price at entry$60,000The Holder’s purchase price at par

Buyer’s payment schedule60 × $1,475$88,500 total Purchase Price

Holder’s net per later payment$1,401.25Payments 2–60, after the 5% fee

The first payment goes to BTC Now. These are contractual cash amounts under the base assumptions, not a return forecast. See the calculation.

What ForwardFlow models

A Buyer pays for one Bitcoin under an Agreement. BTC Now is Holder 0 and sells the receiving side to a Holder. ForwardFlow models the Holder’s purchases, collections, fees and stop-sale proceeds month by month under a chosen price path and Buyer behavior.

The workspace supports scenario research, risk analysis, historical replay, hedge comparison and monthly cash and P&L analysis. The REST API and MCP interface use the same server-side engine. A result answers a question about the assumptions submitted with that run.

Read assumptions before returns. Buyer behavior parameters are priors, historical replay is descriptive, and the default option surface is stylised. A reproducible calculation does not establish that its assumptions describe future outcomes. Read the model limitations →

Choose how you measure success

Choose Dollar workspace to grow USD capital, or Coin workspace to grow BTC holdings compared with holding Bitcoin. Each keeps its own draft, strategy choices and completed research. Open the workspace chooser or read the workspace guide.

Your question	Area in your workspace	How results update
What happens along a path, and across many simulations?	Research	One price path updates with assumptions; run Monte Carlo to explore the distribution
Which strategy changes my outcome?	Compare strategies	Run selected variants on matching simulations
What could I lose, and what cash could I need?	Risk & cash	Inspect the completed comparison and replay an adverse path
Does the result survive a different sample or stress?	Evidence	Run a check; export its samples and assumptions

Both Research homes keep the price-path view, Agreement cash and exits, scenario questions and Monte Carlo close to your assumptions. Dollar simulations measure USD outcomes; Coin simulations measure BTC outcomes against holding matching contributions. Research links directly to stress maps, the purchase-price solver and Agreement detail, whose supporting measures remain labelled USD.

Advanced analysis provides the full assumptions editor, custom strategy builder, monthly exhibits and historical vintages. The original research desk and its existing shared links remain available. Specialist results stay attached to their completed run. If you change assumptions, run again before interpreting them as results for the new scenario. Dollar and Coin drafts are separate; copying a scenario between them is explicit.

Read a result in four steps

Identify the construction. One scenario is one path. Monte Carlo summarizes many seeds. Historical vintages summarize different historical start months. A bridge fixes the terminal price; its spread measures uncertainty along the way.
Inspect the assumptions. Check the price model, purchase price, Buyer behavior, pacing and stop-sale terms. For a hedge, also check its surface, coverage, tenor, trading costs and lifecycle.
Read loss measures beside IRR. Cash-loss frequency, cash multiple and shortfall answer different questions. An unavailable IRR is not zero. An ambiguous IRR needs its flag, and IRR percentiles may exclude seeds without a defined rate.
Keep the evidence. Save the completed run package or MCP replay together with the engine build and historical-data identity. Reproduce against that same build and data. A chart image alone does not contain the full run.

Results and return measures defines the metrics. Verification and reproduction explains the evidence to retain.

The vocabulary

Buyer is the paying side. Holder is the receiving side. Completion delivers the coin after the schedule is paid. Early completion pays the remaining schedule in cash and delivers the coin. A stop sells the coin for dollars and distributes the proceeds through the stop waterfall. A stopped Buyer receives dollars, never coin.

The glossary gives definitions and formula references. Technical identifiers can retain historical names—for example, Owner means Holder and Obligor means Buyer.

Get access

Use the workspace in your browser, or connect your AI assistant to ask questions in your own words. For AI access, email info@btcnow.com. BTC Now provides an access token privately; no ForwardFlow account is needed.

For the implementation team: run and rebuild locally

The engine runs on port 8080 and the web app on port 3000. Start the existing project with START_SIMULATOR.command, or start each service from its directory:

# Engine, from backend/
cargo run --release

# Web app, from web/
npm ci
npm run dev

GET /health returns OK for liveness. GET /api/forwardflow/health returns engine identity. The historical series is compiled into the engine.

The guide is generated from book/src/. Run bash book/build.sh from the repository root to regenerate the glossary and this site. Glossary definitions live in book/glossary.json and also supply the workspace’s term explanations.

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