Net IRR (effective)The annualized return on the cash actually invested — every dollar out and in, exactly when it moved, after the servicing fee and every non-performance. 'Effective' compounds the monthly result into a true annual rate; 'nominal' is the monthly rate × 12. This is the number a fund underwrites.
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nominal —
WALWeighted Average Life: how long the average invested dollar stays out. The paper pays back monthly from month one, so the average dollar is invested far shorter than the full term. Payback month = when cumulative cash received first covers everything invested.
— mo
payback month —
Undiscounted multipleTotal cash received ÷ total cash invested, ignoring timing (also called MOIC). It keeps the IRR honest: IRR rewards getting money back fast, the multiple checks real money was made. Amortizing paper has modest multiples at healthy IRRs — the cash comes back early instead of piling up.
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invested —
BTC Now take (fees only)
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shortfall — · coin returned —
Price-path theaterThe simulated BTC price the whole book lives on, with each cohort's entry price marked and every exit event dotted where it happened. Flip Rational Default on and watch the red dots migrate into the drawdowns.
cohort strikes · exit events on the drawn path
Where every obligor dollar goesEvery dollar of contracted schedule value across the book, split by where it ended up. The four slices always sum to the total the customers signed up to pay.
Σ schedule value, split
Exit splitHow every Agreement in the book ended. Hover each outcome for what it means.
Outcome distributionThe same book run across many possible price futures — same assumptions, different market luck. Serious readers judge the tail, not the median: p3 is the line credit desks provision to, p1 and the worst observed run are the stress floor.
endpoint-pinned bridges resampled per seed
Where it breaksThe whole failure region in one picture: every cell is a full run of your current book with just two assumptions swapped. Blue = the paper works, red = it loses money, and the bold white frontier is IRR = 0 — the break-even line an IC actually argues about. Click any cell to load that scenario into the cockpit.
every cell a full run · bold line = break-even
What actually kills this
each catastrophe vs your current base, live
What should I actually pay
your hurdle, your assumptions
Per-Agreement drill-downOne row per Agreement — every customer's entry price, outcome, cash delivered, fee paid, loss (if any), and coin returned. The whole book is traceable to the cent; nothing is a black box.
click any column to sort — every cent traceable
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Cohort mo
Coin cost @ origination
Outcome
Exit mo
Paid
Delivered
Fee
Shortfall $
Expected net $
Capital P&L $▲
Coin to customer
The audit — every formula re-derivedAn independent tie-out of the current run: the raw double-entry postings are fetched and every reported number — schedules, fees, deliveries, shortfalls, IRR, WAL, the lot — is recomputed by a second implementation in this browser, in exact integer-cent arithmetic, then compared line by line. Two codebases agreeing to the cent, not the engine grading its own homework.
Rust engine vs an independent in-browser re-derivation