One cohort of 100 Agreements originated at every historical month with a full 60 months of subsequent history, each replayed against the actual BTC path that followed (returns rescaled to a common $60,000 entry so dollars compare across vintages). Exits follow the three-bucket framework: ordinary defaults from the lifetime curve, underwater-tiered voluntary non-performance (drawdown-scaled hazard), above-water early settlements at full make-whole. Recoveries at mark-to-market, capped at the remaining schedule — residual coin returns to the customer. All figures net of BTC Now fees. Every assumption below is yours to sensitize.
The hardship lottery — the framework's "ordinary defaults." Flat 10%/yr ≈ 41% over five years (as spec'd — constant hazard, no front-loading). Argue it below consumer unsecured if you like: these customers self-selected by paying.
Underwater-only, tiered by depth vs entry (×0.5 in the money → ×3.0 beyond −70%) — the framework's price-based trigger, driven by each vintage's real path.
| Vintage | Entry close | Net IRR (eff.) | MOIC | Net gain | Shortfall | Completed | Settled | Non-perf. | BTC Now take |
|---|
Recorded monthly series begins Feb 2012 — with a 60-month term that yields … fully seasoned vintages (extendable if earlier bars are supplied). Same engine as the workbench: integer-cent double-entry ledger, conservation-checked per run, independently re-derived (28-check audit) and cross-validated against a second implementation to ±0.3pp on the deterministic crash grid. Same seed + same assumptions = identical results.