RESEARCH / HISTORY
Originate the same Agreement in different historical months. Compare outcomes across the market conditions that followed.
One cohort of 100 Agreements originated at every historical month with a full 60 months of subsequent history, each replayed against the actual BTC path that followed (returns rescaled to a common $60,000 entry so dollars compare across vintages). Exits follow the three-bucket framework: ordinary defaults from the lifetime curve, underwater-tiered voluntary stops (drawdown-scaled hazard), above-water early completions paying the full remaining schedule in cash. A stop sells the coin for dollars 18 days after the missed payment: the remaining schedule to the Holder first, a refund to the Buyer up to what he paid in, any surplus above the Purchase Price to the Holder. All figures net of BTC Now fees. Every assumption below is yours to sensitize.
This analysis has its own vintage size, default curve and drawdown-hazard setting. They are included in Export this run; the scenario export contains the shared draft only.
The hardship lottery — the framework's " ordinary defaults." Flat 10%/yr ≈ 41% over five years(as spec'd — constant hazard, no front-loading). Argue it below consumer unsecured if you like: these Buyers self-selected by paying.
Underwater-only, tiered by depth vs entry (×0.5 in the money → ×3.0 beyond −70%) — the framework's price-based trigger, driven by each vintage's real path.
| Vintage | Entry close | Net IRR (eff.) | MOIC | Net gain | Shortfall | Refunds | Completed | Settled | Stops | BTC Now take |
|---|
Recorded monthly series begins Feb 2012 — with a 60-month term that yields … fully seasoned vintages (extendable if earlier bars are supplied). Same engine as the workbench: integer-cent double-entry ledger, conservation-checked per run, independently re-derived (28-check audit) and cross-validated against a second implementation to ±0.3pp on the deterministic crash grid. Same seed + same assumptions = identical results.