COIN WORKSPACE / ADVANCED STRATEGY
Edit the selected strategy and run its detailed analysis. Use Compare strategies for the workspace’s matched Monte Carlo comparison.
A Holder chooses a book first and a hedge second. The desk prices the hedge the reader has chosen on the paper's own seeded paths and its hedged excess over basis; sets the paper on the shelf against what a desk already does — hold the coin, lend it, overwrite it, carry it; draws the hedged and unhedged distributions; and runs the coin seat's drift sweep — all read in the dollar book or the coin book. The pricing section at the foot — the embedded put ladder on the surface and the risk-neutral fair value — says what the paper's embedded options are worth, in dollars. Exhibits 01–04 show annualized BTC cash-flow IRR, net outcome per BTC of gross Agreement purchases (a ratio), and probability of negative BTC surplus. Exhibits 05–06 are dollar valuations. Hedge cash is converted to BTC equivalents monthly; it is not an executed BTC settlement or a funded-wallet return.
These controls edit the shared scenario. Run the analysis after making changes; results keep the inputs from their completed run.
| tenor ↓ · K/S → | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | |||
| 3m | |||
| 12m | |||
| 24m |
stylised illustration, not market data; import a real snapshot (quoted 0.70×–1.30× spot, 1–24 months; beyond the quotes the wing convention: total variance linear in ln K/S at the edge's own slope, Lee-bounded)
buy call at 100% of the Purchase Price, 12m, rolled at each expiry, 1 coins per Agreement, at origination
The coin seat is short one coin against a dollar stream: it holds a fixed schedule of dollars, so in coin terms it can be short BTC sensitivity, distinct from its one-BTC contractual notional, with the coin delta changing as payments arrive. A hedge against that sensitivity is long listed futures at the hedge ratio times that delta, reset every rebalance, the basis paid on the long notional — locked for the listed months, the after-rate on the rolls beyond; each month's dollars, the hedge's included, are converted to coin at that month's mark. The dollar book's futures run the other way at about a third of the size, through the stop and early-completion mass only; the residual the dollar book cannot buy is the stop curve, and no screen sells that hedge. Rolled calls at the fixed strike and the dealer call are the alternatives, premium and payoff in coin. Every row re-runs the book under GBM at 40% vol for that median annual return, the current structure first and then the coin-seat presets (a preset already selected is not run twice), on 32 seeds each — heavier than the desk, so it runs on its own button.